WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.420 align:middle line:84% BRITTA MERWIN: Hurricane Lee, 80 miles per hour, 00:00:02.420 --> 00:00:04.760 align:middle line:84% so when you look at this storm, Jason, 00:00:04.760 --> 00:00:07.100 align:middle line:84% I think the big takeaway for me is 00:00:07.100 --> 00:00:09.920 align:middle line:84% what we have seen happen in just such a short amount of time. 00:00:09.920 --> 00:00:11.810 align:middle line:84% We went from an invest to a tropical storm 00:00:11.810 --> 00:00:14.700 align:middle line:84% to full-blown hurricane in such a short amount of time. 00:00:14.700 --> 00:00:17.720 align:middle line:84% And this really shows the danger of heat in water. 00:00:17.720 --> 00:00:19.880 align:middle line:84% And we knew this going into this hurricane season 00:00:19.880 --> 00:00:22.250 align:middle line:84% that the heat content was going to be an issue. 00:00:22.250 --> 00:00:24.440 align:middle line:84% And now, we're seeing everything come into fruition 00:00:24.440 --> 00:00:25.640 align:middle line:90% with Hurricane Idalia. 00:00:25.640 --> 00:00:28.310 align:middle line:84% And now Lee is going to be a category 5 hurricane. 00:00:28.310 --> 00:00:31.520 align:middle line:84% That means winds exceeding 157 miles per hour. 00:00:31.520 --> 00:00:33.440 align:middle line:84% And this is going to be brushing the northeast 00:00:33.440 --> 00:00:34.520 align:middle line:90% Caribbean islands. 00:00:34.520 --> 00:00:37.400 align:middle line:84% The good news is, I mean, Jason, we have a lot of confidence 00:00:37.400 --> 00:00:39.030 align:middle line:90% in the next two to three days. 00:00:39.030 --> 00:00:40.640 align:middle line:84% So we know that this is not going to be 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:41.810 align:middle line:90% a direct hit for the islands. 00:00:41.810 --> 00:00:43.520 align:middle line:84% But you're talking about possibly 00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:47.390 align:middle line:84% a category 5 hurricane, maybe 100 miles away from islands. 00:00:47.390 --> 00:00:49.970 align:middle line:84% So there's going to be some indirect impacts 00:00:49.970 --> 00:00:51.080 align:middle line:90% there that are a large concern. 00:00:51.080 --> 00:00:53.330 align:middle line:84% - Yeah, there's been a lot of debate on social media about 00:00:53.330 --> 00:00:55.910 align:middle line:84% whether or not this is going to end up, 00:00:55.910 --> 00:00:58.670 align:middle line:84% unfortunately, impacting either the Northeast 00:00:58.670 --> 00:00:59.630 align:middle line:90% or the mid-Atlantic. 00:00:59.630 --> 00:01:01.530 align:middle line:84% Right now, it's too early to tell here. 00:01:01.530 --> 00:01:03.240 align:middle line:84% I mean, we're still at least five 00:01:03.240 --> 00:01:07.440 align:middle line:84% days out from this actually, unfortunately, developing here. 00:01:07.440 --> 00:01:09.810 align:middle line:84% What we remain confident about is the fact 00:01:09.810 --> 00:01:11.820 align:middle line:84% that, as you mentioned here, Britta, 00:01:11.820 --> 00:01:14.700 align:middle line:84% it is going to likely increase between a category 4 00:01:14.700 --> 00:01:16.320 align:middle line:90% to a category 5 strength. 00:01:16.320 --> 00:01:19.800 align:middle line:84% The reason why has a lot to do with these ocean temperatures. 00:01:19.800 --> 00:01:22.230 align:middle line:84% I mean, when you look at these ocean temperatures here, 00:01:22.230 --> 00:01:24.750 align:middle line:84% I mean, we're pretty much sitting in the mid-80s, which 00:01:24.750 --> 00:01:26.550 align:middle line:90% is how you refer to bathwater. 00:01:26.550 --> 00:01:28.540 align:middle line:84% BRITTA MERWIN: Yes, plenty of heat out there. 00:01:28.540 --> 00:01:29.970 align:middle line:84% So that's why our computer models are 00:01:29.970 --> 00:01:31.890 align:middle line:90% calling for this to be a cat 5. 00:01:31.890 --> 00:01:33.390 align:middle line:84% Now, Jason, you kind of alluded to what we're 00:01:33.390 --> 00:01:35.250 align:middle line:90% looking at for the East Coast. 00:01:35.250 --> 00:01:37.560 align:middle line:84% If you look at the end of this cone, it gets really wide. 00:01:37.560 --> 00:01:39.300 align:middle line:84% And when you look at a forecast cone-- 00:01:39.300 --> 00:01:41.220 align:middle line:84% and we're going to be diving into this in detail 00:01:41.220 --> 00:01:42.630 align:middle line:90% over the next couple hours-- 00:01:42.630 --> 00:01:45.150 align:middle line:84% the wider it is, the more uncertainty 00:01:45.150 --> 00:01:48.060 align:middle line:84% there is to where the center of that track is going to be. 00:01:48.060 --> 00:01:50.520 align:middle line:84% Now, that's expected when you're talking about day five, 00:01:50.520 --> 00:01:52.990 align:middle line:84% especially with a storm that's in the middle of the water. 00:01:52.990 --> 00:01:56.640 align:middle line:84% So direct observations, direct data, raw information of what's 00:01:56.640 --> 00:01:59.250 align:middle line:84% actually going on, it changes the forecast. 00:01:59.250 --> 00:02:02.080 align:middle line:84% And we're talking about a storm that's really far out there. 00:02:02.080 --> 00:02:03.180 align:middle line:84% So the good news is the hurricane 00:02:03.180 --> 00:02:04.140 align:middle line:90% hunters are flying today. 00:02:04.140 --> 00:02:05.370 align:middle line:90% They have multiple flights. 00:02:05.370 --> 00:02:07.080 align:middle line:84% That's going to sample the atmosphere, 00:02:07.080 --> 00:02:10.120 align:middle line:84% not only off the East Coast but around the actual storm. 00:02:10.120 --> 00:02:12.210 align:middle line:84% And so that's going to help us get a little more focus, which, 00:02:12.210 --> 00:02:13.377 align:middle line:84% of course, makes all the difference 00:02:13.377 --> 00:02:14.610 align:middle line:90% for us here on the East Coast. 00:02:14.610 --> 00:02:17.550 align:middle line:84% But what we know is going to be happening is that this weekend, 00:02:17.550 --> 00:02:19.740 align:middle line:84% it's going to be really close to the northeast islands. 00:02:19.740 --> 00:02:22.140 align:middle line:84% And we're talking about a potent, powerful, 00:02:22.140 --> 00:02:24.240 align:middle line:90% mature hurricane, a category 5. 00:02:24.240 --> 00:02:26.400 align:middle line:84% So those very strong winds, they're not going to be 00:02:26.400 --> 00:02:28.080 align:middle line:90% impacting the islands directly. 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:30.120 align:middle line:84% But we're going to have some gusty conditions. 00:02:30.120 --> 00:02:32.400 align:middle line:84% I would say probably prepare for tropical storm conditions 00:02:32.400 --> 00:02:33.750 align:middle line:90% across the northeast islands. 00:02:33.750 --> 00:02:37.200 align:middle line:84% But wave heights could be maybe six to nine feet. 00:02:37.200 --> 00:02:40.440 align:middle line:84% - And it's almost following what happened with Franklin. 00:02:40.440 --> 00:02:42.640 align:middle line:84% You might remember a couple of weeks ago. 00:02:42.640 --> 00:02:44.760 align:middle line:84% And the reason why it's following this track 00:02:44.760 --> 00:02:47.100 align:middle line:84% has really to do with what's happening 00:02:47.100 --> 00:02:48.630 align:middle line:90% with the subtropical high. 00:02:48.630 --> 00:02:51.490 align:middle line:84% And then we have that dip there in the jet stream here. 00:02:51.490 --> 00:02:54.450 align:middle line:84% So hurricanes usually like to follow the path 00:02:54.450 --> 00:02:55.840 align:middle line:90% of least resistance here. 00:02:55.840 --> 00:02:58.140 align:middle line:84% And that's the reason why there's still a little bit 00:02:58.140 --> 00:02:59.550 align:middle line:84% of ongoing debate as far as what's 00:02:59.550 --> 00:03:03.350 align:middle line:84% going to be happening here over the next five to seven days.