KENDALL SMITH: Well, Craig, the northern lights
were on display this week as a solar storm struck the Earth.
Those are just incredible images.
This was actually back in April.
CRAIG HERRERA: Yeah.
KENDALL SMITH: So we've been talking about this for quite
some time now this year. CRAIG HERRERA: [INAUDIBLE].
KENDALL SMITH: And last night was
actually the best time to see this event
that occurred this past week.
But it wasn't quite as spectacular
as last month's showing.
But thankfully, more aurora activity may be
on the way in the coming years.
CRAIG HERRERA: I know a lot of people let down, right?
KENDALL SMITH: Mm-hmm.
CRAIG HERRERA: Robert Steenburgh from the Space Weather
Prediction Center joins us now.
Robert, first I want to talk about what goes
into forecasting the aurora.
It is such a beautiful sight.
ROBERT STEENBURGH: Good afternoon.
To forecast the aurora, we have to be aware of eruptions
from the sun that are coming to Earth
and that are going to interact with Earth's magnetic field.
And so we monitor the sun continuously, 24 hours a day,
seven days a week, to look for these eruptions
and then time them and anticipate their arrival
at Earth and their interaction with that field and
the production of the aurora.
KENDALL SMITH: And so Robert, we know that there has been
just phenomenal growth in the past few years
in terms of space weather, forecasting, and models.
Talk to us about some of these advancements.
ROBERT STEENBURGH: Well, it's been
really spectacular to witness.
I began here in 2007.
And between then and now, we went from about three
numerical models to over 16.
KENDALL SMITH: Wow.
ROBERT STEENBURGH: So we have a huge increase
in modeling capability.
And similarly, the observations we have
have proliferated during that same time period.
So we have more data to work with,
more models to use in forecasting.
And it's just been exceptional.
And it's been a concerted effort by the space weather community.
CRAIG HERRERA: It is so cool.
We're looking at images from April 23.
Let's talk about the event this week and compared to the event
that we had in late April.
ROBERT STEENBURGH: OK, well, the event in late April
was a much stronger storm.
And as a result, that stronger storm
pushed the aurora further south in the Northern Hemisphere
and allowed more people to see it across the United States.
The storm we're in the midst of now is not nearly as strong.
We expected it to range between minor to strong levels.
But it appears right now that we've-- we've reached
minor storm levels, and it's maybe on its way to moderate.
But that will only produce aurora
in the northern tier states.
KENDALL SMITH: Mhm.
So-- so I guess, Robert, you know, for those of us,
unfortunately, who missed out on both of these just incredible
events, or the recent events in general,
what's the outlook look like on future geomagnetic storms?
ROBERT STEENBURGH: Well, because we're-- we're starting to climb
up towards the peak of the solar cycle, [? you ?]
can expect more opportunities.
And that's a-- that's a good thing
from the standpoint of people who like to see the aurora.
The frequency of geomagnetic storms will increase
and giving more people more chances to see the aurora.
KENDALL SMITH: Ooh.
I like that outlook.
CRAIG HERRERA: Yeah.
KENDALL SMITH: [LAUGHS] All right, well, Robert Steenburgh
with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center,
we greatly appreciate your insight.
And Craig. CRAIG HERRERA: Yes.
KENDALL SMITH: I know that you and I both,
this is on our bucket list.
CRAIG HERRERA: For sure.
KENDALL SMITH: We are going to see this.
CRAIG HERRERA: Yes.
KENDALL SMITH: And so we'll be checking
in with you, Robert, later on-- CRAIG HERRERA: Strong storms.
KENDALL SMITH: Mm-hmm-- for more geomagnetic storms.
Thank you so much, Robert.